Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Aliens are Lurking in the Dark Forest—a Serious Scientific Theory—and Beyond

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There is a theory described at


which suggests a solution to the Fermi Paradox.  It proposes that there are many space-faring technological civilizations among the stars and planets of our galaxy, but that we have not detected them, because they are hiding.  Furthermore, the Dark Forest Theory (DFT) posits that they are hiding not only from us, but also, from each other.

And with good reason.

In the galaxy presumed by the DFT, every technological civilization that arises has one priority:  to survive.  As in any wilderness or frontier, only the fittest survive.  There are two main methods of doing this.  One of them is to eliminate (kill) all threats.  The other method is to hide from those threats that one cannot eliminate.

It can be argued that any civilization that does not successfully execute one or both of these survival methods does not survive.  Those who failed no longer live.  Therefore, all the surviving exo-planetary alien civilizations have either eliminated the threats against them, or are hiding.

As reasonable as this theory sounds, there are those who argue against it. 

The dissenters propose that, in order to survive, an alien civilization has to be, well, civilized.  Being civilized, means that a society has to solve its problems in an orderly way that furthers its progress.  In the early stages, this means using the “kill or be killed” policy, but in the later stages, there comes a time when this becomes counter-productive.  War is expensive.  Instead of producing wealth, it destroys it.  Even though warfare does incentivize technological advancements, it does so only in the early stages.  As the destructive potential of advanced technology increases, the risk of both sides destroying each other reaches unacceptable levels.  Therefore, the optimum survival strategy requires cooperation.  Let’s call that, the Friendly Aliens Theory (FAT).

If there are numerous exo-planetary alien civilizations in the galaxy, one of these theories may be correct.  Indeed, some combination of them may apply.  For example, they may be at war with each other, but in circumstances that favor defense over offense.  One might compare that condition to the situation in World War One, where both opposing sides were safer in their own trenches, than they were when attacking across the “no man’s land” that separated them.

The main problem with the FA Theory, compared to the DF Theory, is that, if the aliens are not in hiding, then we have not yet solved the Fermi Paradox.  If all the neighbors are friendly, they should stop in and say hello.  Even if the distances are too great, they should at least turn the front porch light on, that is, to send some sort of signal.  Instead, we see only darkness; we hear only silence.

What is it, then?  Should we favor the Dark Forest Theory, the Friendly Alien Theory, or the Trenches Theory?

Before we settle on one of these, we should carefully consider the possibility that none of them is even close to being right.  We may be anthropomorphizing, that is, assuming that the aliens are like us, at least in terms of how they (and we) solve the problem of survival.

Let’s speculate.  Let’s do so reasonably.

Let’s speculate that life has arisen on faraway planets.  Let’s assume that on a dozen or so of them, life arose billions of years ago, as it did on earth, but that on those dozen or more planets, either the event occurred long before it did on earth, or else, that it afterward, developed much more quickly than we did.  In either case, we are reasonably speculating that any space-faring civilization is much older than ours.  Indeed, even the most advanced civilization on earth is only about five thousand years ahead of the hunter-gatherer phase.  Five thousand years compared to a galaxy is the blink of an eye.

Moreover, because technology moves at an ever-faster pace, we have advanced amazingly far in only the last five hundred years.  In less than a century we both invented the first airplane, and traveled to the moon and back.

What this tells us is that, an exo-civilization that is even five thousand years ahead of us could be so far advanced that, to us, its capabilities would seem magical.  Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Arthur C. Clarke, "Profiles of The Future", 1961

Five thousand years may seem like a long time (okay, it is a long time), but there may be alien civilizations that are a million years, or much more than that, older than ours.  At compound interest, at the accelerating pace of technological advancement, that million years could provide an unimaginable advantage to the older civilization.

What effect age has on survivability, however, is not the main issue here.  One could propose that the first interstellar civilization could easily have conquered the entire galaxy.  Or, one could propose that it chose not to do so, but pursued some other objective, for example, galactic brotherhood.

The effect of age would very likely mean that a million-year-old civilization might have become so vastly advanced technologically, that it has moved into realms that we cannot imagine.

Consider that our scientists now claim to have discovered the existence of dark matter.  Consider further that, aside from its gravitational effects, we have virtually no idea what dark matter might be.  How much less we can imagine, then, what could potentially be done by using dark matter?

Is there a science of dark physics?  Dark chemistry?  Dark biology?  Dark psychology?

Then ask yourself, what else might there be?  Are there fundamental laws of nature that we have not discovered?  Might not any sufficiently advanced alien technology have discovered them, and employed them in their technology?

To speculate even further, might aliens have harnessed the powers of pure consciousness?  Might they have moved beyond the need for physical bodies?  Might they be able to travel between universes?

What has all this to do with Fermi and the Dark Forest?  Only this:  we can only speculate, and our speculations may be hopelessly wrong.
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