Seeking and Finding

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One of the few advantages of metaphysics over physics is freedom.  We are free to explore ideas that physicists are not free to explore, at least not within their domain as physicists.

This freedom, however, is not a valid excuse for sloppy thinking.  Precisely because we rely more on thinking than on experimentation, our thinking is required to be careful, methodical and rigorously disciplined.  These are attributes that are not commonly assigned to philosophy, but they should be.

Now for the main point:

In our assertions, there are varying degrees of certainty which we can claim.  In descending order, these are:

Absolute certainty (I think; therefore I am).

Certainty beyond a reasonable doubt:  Dissenting views are implausible, even foolish.  Flying unicorns may exist, but I assert that they do not.

Strongly probable:  The world will still be here tomorrow.  It could end, but I’m still going to plant the crop.

Possible:  World War 3 may break out this year or next, or in our lifetime.  I can’t prevent it, and I’m not going to build a bomb shelter, but perhaps I could keep my pantry stocked.

Unlikely:  My book may sell well this year.  I’ll try to promote it, but I’m not mortgaging the farm to finance a marketing campaign.

Very unlikely:  The world may end tomorrow, so I will spend all my money on a party tonight.

Impossible:  I will invent a perpetual motion machine.

The standard of scientific proof is to be able to persuade a reasonable skeptic.

The standard in metaphysics is to persuade a reasonable skeptic of where your assertions fit on the scale of degrees of certainty, listed above.

If you correctly identify where your metaphysical assertions (or speculations) fit on such a scale, then you are much better equipped to discuss them, and to know how strongly to defend them.

It also helps you to identify the strengths and weaknesses of other peoples’ assertions, and to engage in fruitful discussions about them, and to learn from those assertions, whether or not you dispute them.

I think that it is strongly probable that my statements in regard to all this are correct.

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